Dos Santos Miocic Prediction
dos Santos vs. Miocic
UFC: Saturday, May 13, 2017 (American Airlines Center)
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The Line: Miocic -175 / dos Santos +150 -- Over/Under:Click to Get Latest Betting Odds
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Stipe Miocic and Junior dos Santos fight Saturday night during UFC 2011 at the American Airlines Center.
Stipe Miocic enters this fight with a 16-2 record and has won 75 percent of his fights by knockout. Miocic has won his last four fights and is coming off a September win over Alistair Overeem. Miocic is averaging 5.03 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50.4 percent. Miocic is averaging 2.14 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 35.4 percent. Miocic hasn’t lost a fight since his 2014 loss to dos Santos and will be defending his belt for the second straight fight. There’s really no surprises with Miocic, as he’s a striking machine who lands volume punches with great accuracy. Miocic does have wrestling and grappling skills as well, but his last five victories have come by knockout and the haymakers are his bread and butter. This will be Miocic’s first fight in Texas.
Junior dos Santos enters this fight with a 18-4 record and has won 72 percent of his fights by knockout. dos Santos has split his last six fights and is coming off a April win over Ben Rothwell. dos Santos is averaging 4.89 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48.9 percent. dos Santos is averaging 0.41 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 62.5 percent. dos Santos has been hit or miss his last several fights and will be fighting for just the third time since 2015. dos Santos is also a well established striker who lands accurate blows and has produced knockouts in three of his last five victories. dos Santos is also effective in the clinch and conditioned well enough for 33 years old to outlast most of his opponents if it goes the distance. This will be dos Santos’ third fight in Texas.
This should be a fun rematch from two of the better strikers in the sport, as the first match was back-and-forth and of course ended up with dos Santos winning by unanimous decision. The problem a few years later is that dos Santos has been way too inconsistent since that fight and Miocic has been punching dudes into the ground. It’s hard seeing dos Santos get knocked out twice in his last four fights and think he has the ability to beat an elite striker such as Miocic again.
So, I’m going to pick Miocic to win his fifth straight fight and redeem himself.
Randy’s PickStipe Miocic
In a heavyweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Junior Dos Santos and Ciryl Gane meet at UFC 256 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
Dos Santos (21-8) steps in as the decisive underdog. He has a four-inch reach disadvantage against his unbeaten counterpart. In addition, he has 4.59 significant strikes landed per minute to 5.12 for Gane, and he is slightly behind in significant strikes-accuracy percentage at 49.71 to 48.24. Dos Santos enters this one on a three-bout losing skid, falling to Francis Ngannou, Curtis Blaydes and Jairzinho Rozenstruik, all by way of KO/TKO. In fact, each of Dos Santos’ past five fights have finished via knockout, including a pair of wins. He is 3-3 since his title-shot loss to Stipe Miocic May 13, 2017, which seems so long ago now.
Gane (6-0) has quickly risen to be one of the best in the division. He has just six pro fights under his belt, but they’re all wins, including a 3-0 mark since arriving at the UFC level. Two of those victories have come via submission, including a Round 1 stoppage in his UFC debut against Raphael Pessoa Aug. 10, 2019. He went the distance against Tanner Boser last time out on Dec. 21, 2019, his first time being unable to get a stoppage in his six outings.
Dos Santos Miocic Prediction
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Junior Dos Santos vs. Ciryl Gane: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:04 a.m. ET.
Gane (-450) is a heavy, heavy favorite, but you cannot risk four and a half times your potential return, even on an unbeaten fighter facing an aging veteran on a three-bout losing skid.
GANE BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (-150) is the better play on the 5-way line. As such, this one won’t go the distance, but playing No (-250) is just too expensive. Instead, target UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-185) for a slightly better value. Also, going with GANE IN ROUND 1 (+210) and GANE IN ROUND 2 (+375) on the round betting lines is a good value if he can win in either of the first two rounds. Yes, you will lose one end, but you’ll still be well ahead if he cashes in either, particularly if he wins in the second.
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Dos Santos Miocic Predictions
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