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Scheduled release date: 3 June 2020
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The recent information flow for the sub-sets of data that feed into the GDP result suggests the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the real GDP growth in the March quarter is relatively modest, with a range of offsetting factors at play.
In the March quarter, household consumption spending held up with booming spending in supermarket hoarding of toilet paper, pasta and rice, although this was partly offset by falls in spending in restaurants, cafes and pubs. In real terms, retail sales rose a moderate 0.7% which will add around 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in the quarter. Exports were very strong through to March, with resources and agriculture remaining resilient while tourism and foreign student arrivals fell sharply.
Business investment was likely weak in the quarter but this could be countered by solid spending by the government, including on infrastructure. The net effect of these two variables is likely to be broadly neutral.
Based on available information, GDP growth is likely to be in a range of around 0.0% with risks evenly balanced. Up or down. The next few weeks will see the publication of further data which will feed into expectations for GDP when the data are released on 3 June 2020.
Can the Coalition Change the momentum?
If the last few days have taught us anything a week in politics is a long time, six months until the election is actually held might be an eternity. The Coalition could bounce back but it will take an incredible run of circumstances to ‘go right’ for that to happen. However in the fast changing world of politics and economics, there is clearly some chance of a Coalition resurrection.
The areas of hope for the Coalition include the improving budget position, which Prime Minister Scott Morrison said is likely to lead to a range of big spending policy announcements ahead of the election in an attempt to win back votes. Get set also for Coalition promises on tax cuts, which it sees as a factor that could sway otherwise disaffected voters.
Could this strategy bring the Coalition back into the mix? We’re not sure. Particularly now that governing just became a whole lot harder, in the wake of the Wentworth by-election. The Coalition will find it much more difficult to manage the House of Representatives if it is in minority.
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Plus, the electorate is likely to view such give-aways with a high degree of cynicism.