Nfl Picks Week Two 2015
Downtown Magazine and Fearless Rick's 2015 NFL Pro Football Week 2 Picks early games provides analysis of upcoming games for the weekend of September 17-20. The New England Patriots are among the best bets in Week 2, as Las Vegas sportsbooks have them giving the Buffalo Bills one point on the road. NFL Picks 2015: The 3 Best Bets For Week 2.
Week 1 is one the books, and just like that we’re right into the swing of things of the NFL season. Last week was a huge week for tight ends, where many of the top scoring offensive players came from that position. We don’t expect that to continue, but you can be sure that many newer DFS players will be trotting out two tight ends in their cash and tournament lineups due to the recent bias we often see from the masses.
One of the most notable injuries from last week was the loss of Dallas Cowboys receiver, Dez Bryant. Bryant will be out 4-6 weeks with a broken foot. This vaults several other position players into prominent roles, which I will touch on later in this article.
The picks last week generally did pretty well, aside from the running back position. Justin Forsett and Lamar Miller were massive disappointments, but DeMarco Murray did get enough red zone opportunities to have a big day.
Both FanDuel and DraftKings are rolling out the same massive tournaments that they offered in Week 1. FanDuel’s $5M NFL Sunday Million has a top prize of $1 million and comes with a $25 entrance fee. DraftKings’ $10M Millionaire Maker has a top prize of $2 million and a slightly smaller entry fee at $20.
Cash Games and Tournaments
In this article, we’ll go position by position in terms of my favorite picks for the week. I also will be mentioning if I like a player more in cash games or tournaments. This is standard daily fantasy lingo and is simple to understand.
Cash games are contests where you have to beat a few other players, such as head-to-head or 50/50 contests. In these games, you only need to beat your opponent or place in the upper half of the field to cash. Cash games could also extend to 3-man contests or triple ups, or even larger contests. In these types of games, we want players who have an excellent floor of points and aren’t necessarily looking for upside (though, it certainly helps).
Tournaments are large field prize pools that consist of hundreds of players to thousands of players. For example, the Week 1 Millionaire Maker has over 500,000 thousand available entries. In large fields, it pays to be more contrarian. For tournaments or GPPs (guaranteed prize pools), we’re looking for players who are lesser-owned and have high upside or ceilings.
In summation, in cash games, we’re looking for high floors and per point value and in tournaments, high ceilings, and low ownership percentages.
Now, onto the picks for Week 2.
Thursday Night Football
The Thursday Night game is usually a game we recommend players fade for ownership reasons, and this week’s game is no different, particularly due to the low total. The visiting Denver Broncos are +3 against the Chiefs at Arrowhead and the total is 41.5 points at 5Dimes Sportsbook. This game will be mostly defense and the way Peyton Manning played last week shouldn’t inspire much confidence in Broncos skill players. Kansas City’s run-based offense isn’t going to speed up the pace either.
If there’s one guy to consider in your Thursday leagues, its tight end Travis Kelce. Kelce opened the season with a bang last week, scoring two touchdowns and catching 6 balls for 106 yards. He’s a monster in the red zone and may see a ton of targets if the Chiefs fall behind. Kelce is 5,100 on DraftKings and 6,600 on FanDuel.
Quarterbacks
Drew Brees (FanDuel: $8,900 DraftKings: $7,800)
Brees will most likely be the highest played quarterback this week and it’s certainly justifiable. The Saints take on the Tampa Buccaneers at home, where they are whopping -10 favorites in a game that has a 47 point total. They are projected to score more than 30 points.
Brees shouldn’t have any issue carving up this defense. Mariota big game last week against Tampa will make his especially high owned, but that doesn’t change the matchup. Lovie Smith’s Tampa 2 defenses seems like it hasn’t fooled defense in five years, and a veteran quarterback like Drew Brees won’t have any trouble picking them apart.
The one issue here to worry about is game flow. Jameis Winston looked awful last week against a poor (albeit, improved) Titans defense and despite the issues in the Saints’ secondary, this one may get ugly quick. If Brees lights up the Buccaneers in the first half, this could turn into a blowout quickly which would reduce passing attempts for New Orleans.
Brees and Company could definitely do enough damage for him to meet value before things get out of hand, but it should be a concern. He’s certainly not the only option in this game, either.
Nick Foles (FD: $6,500 DK: $5,500)
Nick Foles comes into this week perhaps the most underpriced quarterback on the slate. He was fantastic at Seattle in a 34-31 win, despite facing heavy pressure all game. This week, the Rams head to Washington in what will be a much easier matchup.
This might not seem like a game to target from a fantasy perspective. The Rams boast a dominant defense, the Redskins have a terrible offense. It looks on paper to be a defensive struggle. St. Louis are -3 favorites and game total is just 41 points.
However, Foles’ price and matchup vault him into consideration for both cash and tournament play. Washington has always been more vulnerable through the air and they lost SS Duke Ihenacho last week for the season with a broken wrist.
The Rams will move the ball through the air on the Redskins and it shouldn’t be too difficult. Foles’ receiving corps is nothing special but they could get Brian Quick back this week and should return running back Tre Mason to boost their offense.
Foles doesn’t need much to triple his value at both sites (especially DraftKings) and will be facing a terrible secondary that excels against the run. The Rams should have no trouble scoring points through the air. If Washington manages to put up some points and has a lead at halftime, which only increases passing attempts and scoring opportunities.
Sam Bradford (FD: $7,500 DK: $6,900)
Sam Bradford and the Eagles welcome the division rival Dallas Cowboys to Lincoln Financial this week in a game that boasts the largest total of the week at 55 points. Philadelphia are -5 favorites in this contest.
A dirty little secret, or not so secret about DFS pricing is that the players in Sunday Night and Monday Night games aren’t subject to salary adjustments because prices come out late Sunday evening or Monday morning. Therefore, we have a set of players each week that may offer value.
Nfl Picks Week Two 2020
In the case of the Cowboys and Eagles, both of which played on Sunday and Monday, respectively, this is exactly what has happened.
Bradford would still be in play for both cash games and tournaments if his salary were say, 1,200 more dollars than it is now. I think the Cowboys may have some issues scoring in this one, due to the strength of the Eagles’ front seven, but if they go to the pass early, this game should be close throughout.
Either way, the Eagles may run the most plays out of any team this week and that puts all their high-usage players in play every week for cash games. That includes Bradford. You can’t go wrong with any quarterback whose team is projected to score 30 points by the oddsmakers.
Running Backs
Mark Ingram (FD: $8,000 DK: $5,900)
This isn’t the last Saint that will be featured in this article. Ingram is the most logical pivot if you’re not playing Brees and I personally think he’s the best play overall in this game. He’s a borderline must-play in my mind for cash games and has an excellent upside for tournaments.
Last week, he found few holes to run through against Arizona but caught eight passes for 98 yards after being targeted nine times. He has also had nine carries for 24 yards. I don’t expect his passing contributions to be quite as strong this week, but he should have no issues getting it going against a defense that allowed Bishop Sankey to rush for 6.2 yards per carry last week.
If the Saints are controlling this game by halftime, Ingram could see a massive workload on the ground to chew up the clock. He will likely chip in with a few receptions as well, providing a nice floor.
New Orleans lacks a true red zone target in the passing game and Ingram has a firm hold on the goal line carries for the Saints. I think they will be eager to give him touches in the red zone this week after their inability to convert on passing downs inside the 20-yard line may have cost them the victory last week against Arizona.
C.J. Spiller may suit up for this one as he’s been limited in practice this week, which would cut into Ingram’s passing down work, but I Ingram either way. Spiller being active would probably hurt Khiry Robinson the most in terms of touches.
Justin Forsett (FD: $7,800 DK: $6,200)
We’re going back to the well with Forsett this week after he disappointed in Week 1 against a tough Denver defense. One of the things I counted on last week with Forsett was the sheer amount of touches he would receive, despite the poor match. He did get plenty of usages, but it wasn’t enough as the Ravens offense struggled mightily against the Broncos.
This week, Baltimore heads to Oakland and should have a much easier time putting points on the board. The Ravens are -6.5 favorites against the Raiders and despite a fairly low total of 43 points, as a team, their projection as a team is still around 25 points.
The Raiders defense improved in this offseason but will be no match for the Ravens’ elite offensive line. Forsett’s volume was there last week, as he rushed 14 times and saw a team-high seven targets. That amount of work should yield a lot more fantasy production this week.
Lorenzo Taliaferro did practice Wednesday and could suit up in this one which may cut into Forsett’s touches and his goal-line carries, but I still think he’s a premier option this week in all formats.
Marshawn Lynch (FD: $8,500 DK: $7,200)
It’s rare that I will recommend Lynch on the road when Seattle is an underdog, but this is a spot that I think “Beast Mode” shines. The Seahawks are rare -3.5 underdogs against the Packers in a game with a 48.5 total and only project to score around 23 points, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Lynch accounted for at least 1-2 of those scores.
To put it simply, Lynch has almost become matchup proof due to his high-usage. The Seahawks are doing their best to get him the ball regardless of the game flow. If they’re down, he splits out wide as a receiver or catches passes in the flats.
He also can dominate up front against some of the best front sevens in the league, even with Seattle’s poor offensive line. His game against the Rams last week illustrates his high floor. Despite facing one of the best defensive lines in the league, Lynch rumbled for more than 100 total yards, including five catches for 31 yards.
Matt Forte dominated the Packers in the run and short passing game last week and I expect the Seahawks to feed him in a similar fashion. Look for him to be a focal point this week and get into the end zone at least once. There’s a lot of running back value this week, so I can’t blame you for foregoing him in cash games, (although, I like him there as well) but he’s an elite tournament play that will be underutilized.
Wide Receivers
Brandon Coleman (FD: $5,000 DK: $3,300)
The third Saint on our list is Brandon Coleman. The second-year receiver went undrafted but has slowly carved out a niche with New Orleans. Last week, he caught his first career touchdown and gained 41 yards on 7 targets.
He’s not of so much value on FanDuel compared to DK, but the young receiver is certainly in play for cash games on DraftKings. He had two red zone targets last week and as I mentioned above, his size is something New Orleans doesn’t have a lot of when it comes to the passing game.
The danger here is that he doesn’t get targeted much and the Saints build up a big lead before mostly running in the second half, but he needs very little hit value. He played 58 snaps in last week’s game, where veteran Marques Colston only played 46. He is quickly emerging as the second option in a high powered passing attack that has an elite matchup this week.
Terrance Williams (FD: $6,300 DK: $4,200) and Cole Beasley (FD: $5,700 DK: $3,300)
Williams and Beasley are both glaring values with the injury to Dez Bryant. The Eagles are also favorites in a game that has the highest total of the week, which means it is likely that the Cowboys will be throwing to keep up and may have to abandon their traditional run-first approach.
Neither of these guys is elite talents, but they should see a huge boost in targets with Dez out of the offense. Their prices on FD have been adjusted, so they are certainly not must-plays there, but on DraftKings Terrence Williams would be a very dangerous fade in cash game lineups. Beasley’s extremely cheap price also makes him an elite value.
Antonio Brown (FD: $9,200 DK: $8,800)
There are several receivers that may be getting more hype this week, but for me, Antonio Brown is the number one guy by a large margin. With Martavis Bryant and Le’Veon Bell still suspended, the Steelers best means of moving the ball is through Brown.
Pittsburgh’s defense is horrible and while I don’t give San Francisco much credit yet as a strong opponent – their rush defense looked particularly strong the other night. We saw the Steelers line open holes against the Patriots in the NFL opener, but I doubt the run game has much success with a washed up DeAngelo Williams leading the charge.
Pittsburgh are -6 favorites at home and are projected to score about 25 points. I think these come from the air, and more specifically, from Antonio Brown. No 49ers corner can cover him and if the Steelers somehow fall behind in this one, that just means more targets for number 84.
Tight Ends
Jason Witten (FD: $6,000 DK: $4,300)
Witten is another guy that benefits from Dez Bryant’s injury and the fact that the Cowboys will likely be playing from behind. He had a monster game last week after Dez left the game, catching two touchdowns in the final quarter.
Witten isn’t physically what he was years ago and he won’t do much in terms of yardage after the catch, but he is a reliable target and one that Romo trusts. His red zone ability is excellent and he’s a safe bet for a fair number of targets. I’m not sure he has the upside for tournaments this week, but he’s as safe as they get for cash games at the position.
Martellus Bennett (FD: $6,100 DK: $4,500)
Bennett was fortunate enough to grab a garbage time touchdown last week to salvage what would have been a poor fantasy day if not for the score. However, he was targeted seven times by Jay Cutler, which was third behind target hogs Matt Forte and Alson Jeffery.
The Cardinals will no doubt key in on Forte this week and with Jeffery matched up with Peterson, I think the middle of the field will be open for Bennett. Though Todd Bowles is gone and their scheme is different, they have never defended tight ends particularly well under Bruce Arians.
I have no doubt the Bears will be behind in this one and with the running game an uphill battle against a tough front seven like Arizona’s, Bennett should soak up targets as Chicago trails late.
Jordan Reed (FD: $5,000 DK: $3,700)
Reed was added to the injury report on Thursday but still did not practice. Mid-week additions to the injury report are never great, but it still looks like he is ready to play this Sunday against the Rams. Reed had a huge Week 1, leading the Redskins in targets and catching six balls for 62 yards and a touchdown.
His price is dirt cheap considering his “rhythm” with quarterback Kirk Cousins and the propensity of Washington to always be playing from behind. DeSean Jackson will be out for another few weeks and Reed’s price will continue to rise. The Rams aren’t an easy opponent, but he should see plenty of opportunity in this one.
Defenses
Tennessee Titans (FD: $4,600 DK: $3,000)
The Titans looked fantastic defensively last week against the Buccaneers and while much of that was Jameis Winston’s poor play – make no mistake, this unit as improved. Their linebackers are solid, and hey, the opposing offense they are facing is horrible.
Whether Johnny Manziel or Josh McCown starts for Cleveland, the Titans are a strong option this week. They are -4 favorites in is tied the lowest total of the week at 41.5
Dolphins (FD: $5,100 DK: $3,400)
Defenses facing the Jaguars have been fantasy gold for some years now. Last week, the Panthers had their way Jacksonville and this week, it’s Miami’s turn. The Dolphins front four alone should wreck havoc on the Jaguars, a team that has no downfield true downfield threats and a highly inaccurate quarterback.
The Fins are -6 favorites over the Jaguars, who have the lowest projection points of any team this week. This one could get ugly in a hurry.
Rams (FD: $4,900 DK: $3,100)
Anyone who watched the Seahawks and Rams game last week knows St. Louis’ defensive front is no joke. Russell Wilson was running for his life most of the game as the Rams defensive line dominated the battle in the trenches. Kirk Cousins has not responded well to pressure in his short career and doesn’t have much beyond Jordan Reed in reliable weapons. He also isn’t afraid to throw downfield which makes him more turnover prone. Fire up Jeff Fisher’s unit with confidence.
Nfl Picks Week 6 Spread
Author: Joseph Falchetti (twitter)
Copyright: 2015 OnlineBetting.com