Ti9 Picks

3/14/2022 admin

Ti9 Hero Picks
Ti Pickling
Ti9 Pick Rate
Ti Pick

It’s been a while since I wrote a blog post! In fact it’s been nearly a year. Oops. But I’m back and I’m ready to apply the lessons I learned from my TI8 predictions to do an even better job this time! A few things to note:

1. According to this compilation, I was the best prognosticator last year. So that’s cool =). Please note however, that almost all the correct answers come from the tournament predictions section and the rest are really pretty random.

2. I considered whatever precedents made the most sense for each prediction. So for some you’ll see data from the whole season, sometimes I’ll only use the most recent tournaments. (Special note: for the 5 game minimum hero selections I used 10 games for TI qualifiers because there are so many more games.

Ti9 Hero Picks

3. I did not consider players or teams we have almost no recent information on. For example, I’m almost surely not going to make predictions for Jabz or vtFaded as carry since we have very limited data on their new roles.

4. The Summit, while informative, is not what I would consider representative of the whole Dota meta considering only one TI team was there.

With that said, if you just want to see my predictions click here. If you want to look at the research and reasoning and make your own informed decision keep reading!

Non-traditional hero picks are one of the bonuses of experimentation during the TI9 group stage. (Image via Valve) Every year at the International, we’re presented with interesting, albeit strange, drafts that closer reflect our own pub games than they do top-level Dota. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. TI9 Finals: Knowledge, Trust, and the Most Beautiful Dota in the World. Used the fact that they had last pick brilliantly: they moved Gyro to the mid lane and drafted Specre, who is a hard counter to Tinker. Moreover, Liquid lacked the tools to heavily pressure the Spectre early on in their lineup as Void and Tinker are not very aggressive.

Hero predictions

Most picked

Prior results:

2018 – VS
2017 – Earthshaker
2016 – Mirana
Top Picks at Epicenter (most picked first): Grimstroke, Centaur, Ember, Warlock
Top Picks in TI qualifiers: Ember, Centaur, WK, Grimstroke
Top Picks at Summit: Grimstroke, Juggernaut, Dark Willow

TI8 pick: Winter Wyvern

Alternatives: Phoenix, WR, Warlock

Wyvern was top 10 so I guess not a total loss, but VS is such a flexible support and that’s the kind of hero we need to pick.

TI9 pick: Grimstroke

Alternatives: Rubick, CM, Dark Willow, AA, Sand King

Centaur has been nerfed enough I think. Same with Ember. So I’m leaning towards Grimstroke I guess. The problem is not picking an OP hero since they will end up being banned and picking a stable hero.

Most banned

Prior results:

2018 – Enchantress
2017 – Night Stalker,
2016 – Io
Top Bans at Epicenter (most banned first): Sven, Chen, DS, Bat
Top Bans in TI qualifiers: Ember, Omni, OD, IO, Chen
Top Bans at Summit: Enigma, SB, Omni, Chen

TI8 pick: IO

Alternatives: Phoenix, PL, Chen

Okay so Enchantress was an obvious pick after The Summit, but then was hit with a nerf. I way overestimated that nerf’s effect. Oops. Of course IO was the 2nd most banned hero so I guess I didn’t miss by much.

TI9 pick: Chen

Alternatives: Omni, Enigma, IO

Chen’s ability to manipulate lanes is a unique skill that teams hate to face. Also better teams (i.e. teams at Epicenter and TI) are more likely to be able to take advantage of that ability. Omniknight and Enigma are heroes that we just don’t want to deal with. Chen was nerfed recently, but it doesn’t change his ability to alter the early game.

Hero with highest win rate (5 game minimum)

Prior results:

2018 – Venomancer
2017 – Ogre (wtf?)
2016 – Undying/Lone Druid
Epicenter: Axe, WD, Slark
TI qualifiers (at least 10 games played): Dark Willow, Beastmaster, Bane ()
Summit: Clinkz (6-0), Enigma (7-1), Storm (11-2)
7.19-7.22 Majors: Arc Warden, Nyx, Io (over 10 games played)

TI8 picks: Chen

Alternatives: Brood, IO, Huskar.

I mean this has to be like the least predictable category. Brood did end up 4th behind Veno, Drow and Invoker and tied with Arc Warden.

TI9 pick: Arc warden

Alternatives: Brood, Enigma

Who knows? I went with Arc Warden because it feels like a hero that will barely meet the 5 game minimum and therefore has a good chance to hit that high win-rate.

Hero with the highest kill average (5 game minimum)

Prior results:

2018 – Timbersaw
2017 – PA
2016 – PA
Epicenter: QOP, Alch, CK (Arc Warden beat them all but only 4 games)
TI qualifiers (at least 10 games played): WR, Sniper, Gyro
Summit: Morph, Storm, OD
7.19-7.22 Majors: Morph, Ursa, Arc Warden (over 10 games played)

TI8 pick: Storm

Alternatives: PA, SF, Slark

None of my choices were in the top 10 qualifying heroes so there goes that. Not sure what the lesson here is, but Gyro was the only one from the tournaments that got close.

TI9 pick: OD

Alternatives: Arc Warden, QoP, Gyro

I think OD is up and coming and while OD is a better farming hero than he used to be, he’s still got lots of kill potential. I think Morph has just been nerfed too much.

Hero with highest assist average (5 game minimum)

Prior results:

2018 – Tusk
2017 – BH
2016 – AA
Epicenter: Nyx, Tusk, Oracle, ET,
TI qualifiers (at least 10 games played): Disrupter, AA, Earthshaker
Summit: Earth Spirit, Spirit Breaker, Mars
7.19-7.22 Majors: Spirit Breaker, AA, IO (over 10 games played)

TI8 pick: Tusk

Alternatives: BH, IO

Got this one. The top 5 were all supports (Tusk, Nyx, VS, Phoenix, Earth Spirit). Also you’ll note that most of them have some sort of AOE to get assists. Might be worth keeping in mind.

TI9 pick: Spirit Breaker

Alternatives: IO, AA, Nyx

Do you think Zeus and or Spectre will be picked enough? If they are, they are good candidates. I don’t think they will be so I’m going to go with Spirit Breaker. The downside of Spirit Breaker is that he will likely get played a lot.

Hero with lowest death average (5 game minimum)

Prior results:

2018 – Medusa
2017 – Morph
2016 – Lone Druid
Epicenter: Lone Druid, Gyro, WR
TI qualifiers (at least 10 games played): AM, Jugg, DK
Summit: Clinkz, Sven, Slark
7.19-7.22 Majors: AM, Lycan, Lone Druid (over 10 games played)

TI8 pick: Morphling

Alternatives: Brood, Medusa, Lycan (also 4th at Supermajor)

Morphling averaged 4.3 deaths/game which was shockingly high for that hero imo. Brood, Lycan and Medusa were the top 3 so I was pretty close.

TI9 pick: AM

Alternatives: Naga, Clinkz

I’m going AM. Again I expect to see a fair bit of AM this tournament and I’m just not as convinced by the other heroes. I think Clinkz is a decent option, but TI teams are better at dealing with heroes like Clinkz than the ones at the summit. Naga of course is another split pusher with an escape so she’s a solid option as well.

Hero with highest last hit average (5 game minimum)

Past Results

2018 – SF
2017 – AM
2016 – AM
Epicenter: Alch, Medusa, Naga (Arc Warden, AM only had 4,3 games but were higher)
TI qualifiers: Naga, AM, Medusa (over 10 picks due to # of qualifier games)
Summit: Gyro, Jugg, Sven
7.19-7.22 Majors: AM, Terrorblade, Arc Warden (over 10 games played)

TI8 pick: Medusa

Alternatives: AM, Medusa, PL (probably picked too many times to win an average category, but he’s up there), Also my dark horse is Sven!

Well SF got it as the hero who only played 6 games. More traditional heroes like Terrorblade and Medusa were 2 and 3 and AM was only played in one game.

TI9 pick: AM

Alternatives: Arc Warden, Sven, Naga

If you think AM gets picked 5 times you have to pick him or maybe Arc Warden. I think he will get picked so I’m taking him here. Sven is another hard farmer, but I think he’s been nerfed enough.

Hero with highest XPM (5 game minimum)

Past Results

2018 – Timbersaw
2017 – Brood
2016 – AM
Epicenter: TA, Sven, Medusa (AM, Brood, Meepo and Arc warden all high but <5 games)
TI qualifiers (at least 10 games played): AM, Sven, TA
Summit: Slark, Sven, Morph
7.19-7.22 Majors: AM, Medusa, TA (over 10 games played)

TI8 pick: Medusa

Alternatives: Meepo, AM, Brood

Meepo was #1 but not enough games played. AM was 3rd with only 1 game and Medusa and Brood were 4th and 5th. So clearly we’re in the right neighborhood.

TI9 pick: AM

Alternatives: TA, Meepo

I gotta go with AM. I think we have 5 AM games and we won’t get 5 Meepo games. Meanwhile TA has been nerfed repeatedly.

Hero with most kills in a game

Past Results

2018 – Tiny
2017 – QOP
2016 – Invoker/Mirana
Epicenter top 10 individual kill games: Morph 2, Sven 2, Ursa, QoP, Ember, AM Jugg, Naix
7.19-7.22 Majors top 20 individual kill games: Morph 4, PA 2, Jugg 2, Meepo 2, Mirana, Terrorblade, Storm, Timber, Ursa, Gyro, QoP, Axe, Naix, MK

TI8 picks: Storm

Alternatives: Ember, Mirana

Mirana was in the top 5, but Ember and Storm really underwhelmed.

TI9 picks: QOP

Alternatives: Morph, Jugg

Morph has been the carry of the DPC season imo, but I think the nerfs have hit the hero enough. I’m actually leaning towards QoP right now and I have no idea why, but this is a shot in the dark. Jugg is not necessarily a kill machine, but again he’s going to get a fair number of games.

Hero with most last hits in a game

Past Results

2018 – Tinker
2017 – AM
2016 – AM
Epicenter top 10 individual CS games: Lesh, Jugg, Arc Warden, WK, Naix, TA, Ember, Jug, Gyro, Naga
7.19-7.22 Majors top 20 individual CS games: Terrorblade 5, AM 2, Jugg 2, Lesh, Medusa, Lone Druid, Arc Warden, WK, Naix, Storm, Spectre, TA, Meepo, Ember

TI8 pick: Medusa

Alternatives: AM, Ember, TA

Medusa and AM didn’t get played enough to really have a shot at the top possibilities. Tinker was barely played, but all it takes is one game.

TI9 pick: AM

Alternatives: Jugg, Medusa, Ember

Look I just don’t trust Terrorblade to get played very much at TI9. So even though he’s got 3 out of the top 4 this year I don’t buy him as a good option. AM is the easy pick, but if you want more games, Jugg is a strong option as well.

Team Predictions

Winner of TI

TI8 pick: Liquid

Alternatives: VP, LGD

My 3 picks finished 4th, 5th and 2nd. Not that they were particularly creative picks. OG won and if you picked OG you’re either a witch, brilliant, or lucky. TI favorites don’t always win, but they almost always finish in the top 8 so go with one of them I guess.

TI9 pick: VG

Alternatives: Secret, VP, Liquid, LGD

Did I just list 5 of the top 6 teams and say pick one of them? I did. Inspired analysis though right? Here’s why I picked VG. While they were not the most consistent team this season, I believe their peaks were higher than even Secret’s this year.

Team with most kills in a game

Prior Results

2018: Liquid/VP
2017: VP
2016: EG
7.19-7.22 Top 25 single game kill scores at DPC event: VP 4, Secret 3, Liquid 3, TNC 2, EG 2, Mineski, Beastcoast, OG, Alliance, Complexity, Forward, Gambit, Chaos, RNG, VG, LGD 1
Epicenter top single kill games: Secret, RNG, VP
Average kills/game in majors since 7.19: LGD, VG, EG

TI8 pick: VP

Alternatives: VG, LGD, Winstrike

Well I got this one right. Sweet. They did tie with Liquid though so more people got this right.

TI9 pick: VP

Alternatives: VG, LGD, TNC

I’m going with VP again because their games have tended to be longer on average. Same goes for TNC. Vici Gaming has the highest average kills/game, but they also tend to have shorter games and may not have the same long crazy game upside. TNC is the darkhorse, but I trust VP to play more games than TNC.

Team with highest kill average

Prior Results

2018: EG
2017: LGD.FY
2016: OG
Epicenter: TNC, LGD, VP
Average kills/game in majors since 7.19: LGD, VG, EG

TI8 pick: VP

Alternatives: LGD, Winstrike

LGD was number 2. Exactly .75 kills/game below EG. Vp was 4th. Not a terrible result, especially since the new EG Was so hard to predict last year

TI9 pick:TNC

Alternatives: VP, VG, LGD

Usually I pick what I think to be the safe choice, but I’m going with TNC here. They love long games. They don’t give up. And they had the highest average at Epicenter, so I at least have some evidence to back it up. The downside is that TNC has a lower floor than VP, VG, LGD and if you lose more games you’re likely to have fewer kills.

Team with fewest deaths in a game

Prior Results

2018: Fnatic
2017: Newbee
2016: Escape gaming
7.19-7.22 top 25 single game death scores at a major: VG 4, LGD 4, EG 3, NIP 2, Alliance 2, Liquid, Gambit, Ehome, VP, Forward, Mineski, Navi, The Pango, Chaos, Fnatic
Epicenter top 10 single game death scores: VG 2, VP, Forward, LGD, NIP, Gambit, Fnatic, TNC, Secret
7.19-7.22 Fewest average deaths at majors: VG, Secret, LGD

TI8 pick: Secret

Alternatives: VP, Liquid, Mineski

Fnatic had a 1 death game. Secret had a 2 death game. Show me who thought this was going to be Fnatic =(.

TI9 pick: VG

Alternatives: LGD, Liquid

This one to me seems obvious. You want a team that’s going to win a lot of games and is going to win them quickly. Vici Gaming does both of those things and was the only team to average under 20 deaths/game this season. Easy pick. Liquid with w33 is arguably a wildcard here but they were only 5th fewest deaths/game at epicenter. (My cohost Adam Lorton is shocked that I didn’t include Secret here with some sort of pocket strat. What a homer…)

Team with the most Assists in a game

Prior results

2018: LGD
2017: TNC
2016: EG
7.19-7.22 top 25 single game assist scores at majors: VP 3, VG 3, Secret 2, EG 2, Liquid 2, TNC 2, Fnatic 2, Alliance, Mineski, OG, J.Storm, NIP, Pain, Complexity, Gambit, Chaos
7.19-7.22 Average assists at Majors: TNC, VG, LGD
Epicenter top 10 games: TNC 2, Alliance, Secret, OG, VP, Gambit, Forward, RNG, LGD
Epicenter top averages: TNC, VP, VG

TI8 pick: VG

Alternatives: Winstrike, Secret

Well, I didn’t even get close on this one. None of my 3 picks showed up in the top 10 games. Guess this one is noisy, but I was way off.

TI9 pick: TNC

Alternatives: VG, VP

The TNC pick is based on them only going to 3 majors this year and still have 2 of the top 25 highest single assist games with half the games compared to VP and VG. Even though they might have slightly fewer games than VG or VP at TI9, the group stage format somewhat equalizes games played.

Team that wins the Longest Game

Prior results

2018: Mineski
2017: IG.V
2016: Escape
7.19-7.22 top 25 longest wins at majors: VP 5, Liquid 3, RNG 2, EG 2, Fnatic 2, TNC 2, Jstorm, Secret, Chaos, alliance, LGD, NIP, Col, Beast, Mineski
7.19-7.22 Longest average win length at majors: RNG, TNC, VP
Epicenter longest average win length: RNG, Secret, TNC
Epicenter longest 10 wins: VP 3, TNC 2, RNG 2, Alliance, Secret, Liquid

TI8 pick: VG

Alternatives: Newbee, Fnatic, Secret

Newbee won the second longest game at TI8 and they did it against Secret. Fnatic lost the longest game. So 3 out of my 4 picks appeared in the longest 2 games. So I’ll call this one okay. Long games are a crapshoot as to who wins so you want whoever is going to play in them.

TI9 pick: VP

Alternatives: TNC, RNG, Secret

VP play long games and they win long games. They also are likely to win more games than RNG for example. Again this is a category with a lot of noise so don’t invest too much into the nuances.

Team that wins the shortest game

Prior results

2018: OG
2017: EG
2016: Navi
7.19-7.22 top 25 shortest wins at majors: VG 5, Secret 3, TNC 2, Ehome 2, LGD 2, EG 2, Liquid 2, Chaos 2, Mineski, Alliance, OG, Fnatic, VP
7.19-7.22 shortest average win length: Navi, Chaos, Keen, Infamous, Secret, VG
Epicenter average shortest win length: EG, LGD, VG
Epicenter shortest 10 wins: Liquid 2, LGD, TNC, VG, Gambit, EG, Fnatic, VP, NIP

TI8 pick: Liquid

Alternatives: VP

VP won the 5th shortest game and Liquid won the 6th so it wasn’t totally crazy, but this was pretty far off.

TI9 pick: VG

Alternatives: Liquid, Secret, LGD

You want a team that will win quickly and will win a lot. That seems like VG to me, but there are a lot of options for this one. Liquid especially is tempting. Especially since they were the only team to get 2 of the shortest wins at epicenter. But ultimately, VG has been doing this for too long and too consistently for me not to pick them.

Team with highest game length Average

Prior Results

2018: TNC
2017: Empire
2016: Secret
7.19-7.22 Longest game average at majors: TNC, RNG, NIP
Epicenter longest gave average: TNC, Secret, RNG

TI8 pick: VG

Alternatives: EG, Fnatic, Newbee

VG was a horrible choice here. They finished 15th in average game length out of 18 teams. Newbee and Fnatic were a lot closer (2nd and 3rd) but man VG was a real mistake.

TI9 pick: TNC

Alternatives, RNG, NIP, Secret

I feel really conflicted on this one. TNC’s average game length this year is only 3 seconds longer than RNGs. No teams at TI have really few games (16 game minimum) so I can’t pick the team that might just get 2-3 lucky long games. Ultimately, I basically flipped a coin between TNC and RNG.

Team with most different heroes picked

Prior Results

2018: Secret
2017: Newbee
2016: Wings
Epicenter: Liquid 50 (21 games), VP 47(18), LGD 41 (16), NIP 40 (11)
MDL Disneyland: NIP 47 (16 games), Liquid 45 (21), LGD 43 (19), EG 39 (13)
Dreamleague: VP 55 (28 games), Fnatic 52 (18), Secret 40 (16), Mineski 36 (13)
Chongqing: Secret 51 (20 games), EG 38 (20), VP 38 (17), LGD 34 (13)
Kuala Lumpur: VP 40 (20 games), NIP 38 (16), EG 37 (20), TNC 36 (13)

TI8 pick: Optic

Alternatives: VG, VP

Well Optic finished 3rd with 52 unique heroes in 24 games compared to secret with 58 in 26 games. So could be worse.

TI9 pick: Secret

Alternatives: NIP, VP, LGD, Liquid

Hmmmm. If Optic hadn’t failed last year, I’d be sorely tempted to pick NIP. VP have been the most consistently at the top, but ultimately I’m going to go with Secret. I have a feeling that Puppey will be trying plenty of heroes during the group stage and saving some strats for the knockouts.

Team with fewest different heroes picked

Prior Results

2018: TNC
2017: Newbee
2016: Wings
Epicenter: Infamous 22, Pain 23, EG 27
MDL Disneyland: Empire 19, Beastcoast 20, Fnatic 25
Dreamleague: Navi 22, Forward 25, Liquid 27
Chongqing: Aster 18, JStorm 22, Alliance 23
Kuala Lumpur: Gambit 22, Pain X 24, Aster 28

TI8 pick: Pain

Alternatives: IG, Mineski, OG

Ewww. Pain picked a good 9 more heroes than TNC did last year. Not even close on this one. I think the lesson is that with TI the weakest few teams still get a minimum of 16 games whereas at a major you might only get 5.

TI9 pick: Keen

Alternatives: Infamous, Alliance, Mineski, Chaos

Since all the teams are playing 16 games I decided to run the data again and picked the team with the fewest heroes played when they played over 10 games at each major and got: Alliance, VG, Keen, VG, OG. I decided to go with Keen. VG is a legitimate option as well, but I still expect them to play a lot of bracket games so I’m leaning Keen. OG’s fewest at epicenter was when playing with their coach which I think eliminates them. Chaos is a dark horse that I have not enough info to rate.

Players Predictions

Player with the highest kill average

Prior results

2018: Miracle
2017: Kuku
2016: Miracle
Epicenter: Ana, Somnus, Gabbi, Paparazi
7.19-7.22 average kills in majors: Paparazi, Gabbi, Miracle, Ana, Somnus

TI8 pick: Somnus

Alternatives: Ramzes, Iceberg

Somnus was #3 in kills/game. Ramzes was #5. So not terrible, but it does seem foolish to not trust in Miracle.

TI9 pick: Paparazi

Alternatives: Miracle, Ana, Gabbi

Ana to me is the high upside, but also most downside of these players. Miracle is the legacy choice, but I think Paparazi is the choice from this year. Miracle not being in the top 4 for kills at Epicenter despite his team’s performance is what makes the call for me.

Player with most kills in a game

Prior results

2018: Sumail
2017: Kuku
2016: w33/Sumail
Epicenter top 18 kill games: Ana 3, Miracle 2, Monet 2, Paparazi, Yawar, Afoninje, Midone, Kuku, Micke, Nisha, Armel, Gabbi, Fata, Ramzes
7.19-7.22 top 20 individual kill games: Ramzes 3, Ace 2, Moo 2, Midone 2, Paparazi 2, RTZ, Afoninje, Ame, Shadow, Ahjit, Yawar, Ana, Miracle, Sumail

TI 8 pick: Somnus

Alternatives: Paparazi, Armel, Iceberg, Moon

Sumail had 31 kills in a game. The next highest was 24. He didn’t have another entry in the top 20. This is the perfect example of an outlier! Somnus tied for 3rd with 22 kills.

TI 9 pick: Ramzes

Alternatives: Paparazi, Miracle, Ana, Armel, Gabbi

Paparazi seems like an obvious choice, but I’m going to steer clear of him because I think VG won’t have the super long outlier game. Instead I’m thinking VP or TNC and I’m going to go with Ramzes. You should also see that unlike past years, safe-laners seem to be having more kills than mids this year. So I would definitely lean that way.

Player with the lowest death average

Prior results

2018: Resolution
2017: Ame
2016:Qojqva
Epicenter: Daxak, Paparazi, Ori, Ramzes
7.19-7.22 lowest average deaths at majors: Nisha, Ame, Paparazi, RTZ, Ramzes

TI8 pick: Raven

Alternatives: Ramzes, Reso

Raven finished 2nd and Reso was #1. I didn’t get it right, but I was damn close. This seems like a fairly stable and predictive category.

TI9 pick: Paparazi

Alternatives: Nisha, Ame

This has to be a hard carry. But between the top 4-5 it’s a bit of a crap shoot. I’m going with Paparazi because I think VG will do the best and have shorter games, but I don’t feel strongly about it versus the other options.

Player with the highest assist average

Prior results

2018: Cr1t
2017: Ah fu
2016: Zai
Epicenter: Tims, Eyyou, Fade, Puppey, Solo, Dy
7.19-7.22 average assists at majors: Eyyou, Fade, Tims, Dy, Kuku, fly, cr1t, fy

TI8 pick: Lanm

Alternatives: Nofear, AlwaysWannaFly, fy

This was bad. Really bad. Lanm wasn’t even in the top 25. Fy was 5th and that was the closest I got. Ultimately you know who did well? The supports from the top teams (Cr1t, GH, Solo, Fly, Fy, Puppey) were the top 6.

TI9 pick: Fade

Alternatives: Eyyou, Tims, Puppey, Solo

Okay so the choice is to go with TNC and their long games or VG and their consistent winning games. For average I’m going with Fade. I feel slightly more confident in VG than in TNC to do well and Fade/DY have been absolute monsters. Cr1t is who I might have gone with prior to doing research and I can’t fault you. The man has been a beast this year. He might have the most impactful assists, but this year he hasn’t been getting the most.

Player with most assists in a game

Prior results

2018: Fy
2017: Super
2016: General
Epicenter top 20 individual assist games: This is a shitshow. Not a single player has more than one appearance on this list…
7.19-7.22 top 20 individual kill games: Zai 2, Dy 2, Yapzor 2, Solo, Puppey, 9pasha, Nisha, Fly, Saksa, Cr1t, S4, Forev, 1437, Afterlife, Ceb, Ppd, Yang

TI8: NoFear

Alternatives: Fenrir/Lanm,

Okay, so players from poorly performing teams did not show up on the most assists list. Instead its fy, Jerax, Solo, cr1t and fly were at the top last year. Lesson is pick a winning team.

TI9: Dy

Alternatives: Zai, Yapzor, Fade, FY

I don’t have a great answer for this one. But if we’re talking supports on teams I think will do well, we’re talking VG, Secret, Liquid, VP and LGD.

Player with highest last hit average

Prior Results

2018: Sccc and Moon
2017:Reso
2016:IceIceIce
Epicenter: Nisha, Monet, Micke, Ramzes, Armel, Gabbi
7.19-7.22 top average CS at majors: Gabbi, Ace, RTZ, Ramzes

TI8 picks: Resolution

Alternatives: Ramzes

Reso was #4 so not too bad. I think he got into trouble when VGJ Storm got off to such a good start. They won a lot of fast games using a 3 core lineup and not the Reso farm model.

TI9 picks: Ramzes

Alternatives: Nisha, Gabbi, RTZ

I don’t feel good about picking Ramzes, but he’s been a good farmer. His team is likely to win a fair number of games. Gabbi and Nisha also fit that mold. I think Secret’s average game length might be too short though.

Player with most last hits in a game

Prior Results

2018: Moonn
2017: Reso
2016: Miracle-
Epicenter top 20 individual Last hit games: Ramzes 3, Monet 2, Midone 2, Micke 2, Ceb 2, Ace, Gabbi, Nisha, Ace, Ori, Miracle, qojqva, NoOne, Setsu
7.19-7.22 top 20 CS games at majors: Razmes 2, Monet 2, Gabbi 2, Moo, Nisha, RTZ, Sylar, Abed, Midone

TI8 pick: Resolution

Alternatives: SCCC, Ramzes

I felt good about that top 3, but let me tell you it wasn’t close. SCCC was the only one of the 3 to crack the top 10 at #6. This is a crap shoot for sure, but I sort of expected to do at least a little bit better than 1 out of the top 10.

TI9 pick: Monet

Alternatives: Razmes, Gabbi, Nisha

I’m taking a gamble here and going with Monet. RNG didn’t get that many games at either Epicenter or the whole season and yet he’s near the top. They love long game and chinese carries get a lot of time to farm. But ultimately, this is gonna be who plays the really long AM or Naga or Arc Warden game.

Player with most GPM in a game

Prior Results

2018: XXS
2017: Ana
2016: w33
Epicenter top 20 GPM games as alchemist: Somnus, Armel,Sumail, Noone
7.19-7.22 top 20 individual GPM games as alchemist: Sumail 2, Somnus, Armel, Timado, Ace Noone

TI8 picks: Sumail

Alternatives: Paparazi, SCCC, Miracle, Ame

So XXS got it last year because guess what? he played Alchemist the most. Lesson here is it doesn’t matter how good or bad your team is if you play Alch enough times. Sumail btw had the 4th, 6th and 7th best gpm games. Not surprisingly those were on alchemist.

TI9 picks: Sumail

Alternative: Somnus

I mean forget who has a 900 GPM game as Arc warden. I think there’s going to be Alchs picked. Therefore that’s all that matters.

Player with highest GPM avg

Prior Results

2018: Miracle
2017: Ana
2016: IceIceIce
Epicenter: Armel, Ramzes, Paparazi, Nisha, Monet, Ame, Miracle
MDL Disneyland: Ace, Miracle, RTZ, Ramzes Ame, Nisha
Dreamleague: Ame, Nisha, Paparazi, Ramzes, Ace
Chongqing: Ame, RTZ, Ramzes, Paparazi, Nisha
Kuala Lumpur: RTZ, Nisha, Ramzes, Gabbi, Abed
7.19-7.22: RTZ, Ame, Nisha, Ramzes, Miracle, Monet

TI8 pick: Resolution

Alternatives: Ramzes, Miracle

Reso finished 5th. Not too bad and Miracle obviously won. The top 6 were half Alch players and half position 1s. So take that into consideration

TI9 pick: Ame

Alternatives: Ramzes, Miracle, Nisha, RTZ

This is a tough one. On the one hand you want the team that wins. But you also want the team that has longer games. LGD doesn’t have games that are that long, but Ame has been at/near the top all season. I think Ramzes is my second choice and I could still see myself changing to him.

Ti Pickling

Player that plays the Most different heroes

Prior Results

2018: Midone
2017: Miracle-
2016: Faith_bian, Iceice, Miracle-
Epicenter: NoOne, Mind Control, Tie (Miracle, Ace, Ame, Kuro)
MDL Disneyland: PPD, Ame, Ace, Mind Control
Dreamleague: Ramzes, Solo, Tie (Jabz, Noone)
Chongqing: Zai, MidOne, Nisha
Kuala Lumpur: Fata, Tie (Rodjer, Solo, Zai, Cr1t, Midone, Sumail)
7.19-7.22 Major totals: Zai, NoOne Tie (Solo, Chalice, Midone, Fata)

TI8 picks: Ramzes

Alternative: Miracle

Ramzes was pretty far off here, but Miracle was tied for #2.

TI9 picks: Zai

Alternatives: Midone, Miracle, Ame

Another crap shoot, but ideally you want to pick a player who plays multiple positions. Miracle is a likely candidate for this in the past, but I think it’s likely he’ll play almost entirely safelane so that decreases my desire to pick Miracle. MidOne is still a strong option, but I’m going with Zai because he does play a sort of position 3 and 4 hybrid and has heroes from both.

Tournament Predictions

Number of games played at the Main event

Prior Results

2018: 47/60
2017: 47/60
2016: 47/60
Epicenter: 49/60
MDL Disneyland: 51/60
Dreamleague: 52/60
Chongqing: 46/60
Kuala Lumpur: 49/60

TI8 pick: 45-49

Alternative: 50-54

EZ.

TI9 pick: 45-49

Alternative: 50-54

I mean all 3 previous TIs and 3/5 majors are in 45-49 so that seems like the easy choice. However, this year I think it’s closer to 50-54 than it has been before. Still I’m sticking with 45-49.

Total number of heroes picked

Prior Results

2018: 107
2017: 107
2016: 105
Epicenter: 105
MDL: 97
Dreamleague: 96
Chongqing: 88
Kuala lumpur: 95

TI8 pick: 101+

Alternative: 91-100

TI9 pick: 101+

Alternative: 91-100

For whatever reason (probably longer group stage), TI usually has more heroes picked than your average major. So that probably means 101+ especially since Epicenter was over 100. But 4/5 majors did drop below 100 so I can justify 91-100, just historically it still seems like over 100 is the right call.

Total number of heroes banned

Prior Results

2018: 91
2017: 97
2016: 82
Epicenter: 91
MDL Disneyland: 85
Dreamleague: 86
Chongqing: 76
Kuala Lumpur: 76

TI8 pick: 81-90

Alternative: 91-100

I ended up being 1 off on this one. I don’t feel too bad about it.

TI9 pick: 91-100

Alternative: 81-90.

Nearly a coin flip. But I’m going to go high this year. TI has more teams and more games. Epicenter is also the best guess for a TI meta.

Most combined total kills in a game

Prior Results

2018: 108
2017: 101-110
2016: 117
Epicenter: 102
MDL Disneyland: 92
Dreamleague: 79

TI8 pick: 101-110

Alternatives: 111-120, 91-100

Nailed it.

TI9 pick: 101-110

Alternatives: 91-100

Okay, so this one is really random. I didn’t nail it so much as get lucky last year. At this point I guess I should go with the Epicenter record since that’s the most like TI. But do what you want.

Longest game of the tournament

Prior Results

2018: 81:52
2017: 100+
2016: 76:57
Epicenter: 76:08, 68:12, 67:54
MDL Disneyland: 62:24, 62:05, 61:48
Dreamleague: 72:29, 62:12, 60:05

TI8 pick: 80-89:59

Alternatives: 70-79:59, 90-99:59, 100+

Ended up getting this one right, But not by much.

TI9 pick: 80-89:59

Alternatives: 70-79:59, 90-99:59

Epicenter games were longer than MDL and Dreamleague so I think going under 70 is a real mistake. In this case you’re just predicting an outlier and it’s TI so I’m going a bit long.

Shortest game of the tournament

Prior Results

2018: 16:59
2017: 15-20
2016: 15:28
Epicenter: 18:08, 20:10, 22:27
MDL Disneyland: 19:18, 22:14, 22:23
Dreamleague: 17:28, 20:52, 21:33

TI8 pick: 15-19:59

Alternative: 20-24:59

This one was an easy pick and it worked out.

Ti9 Pick Rate

TI9 pick:15-19:59

Alternative: 20-24:59

I’ll say exactly what I said last year because it was exactly right. I think 15-19:59 is the smartest choice, but the fact that so many of the majors barely had short games is a bit concerning. However, the group stage at TI is so long that I think some teams will gg out early in a game to prevent fatigue. Most of those other majors did not have as long a group stage.

Most kills by a hero in a game

Prior Results

2018: 31
2017: 23-25
2016: 23
Epicenter: 22, 21, 20
MDL Disneyland: 23, 21, 20
Dreamleague: 20, 20, 20

TI8 pick: 26+

Alternative: 23-25

I got this one, but I don’t feel great about it. Sumail’s 31 kills was the only game that happened in 26+, but I’ll take it.

TI9 pick: 23-25

Alternative: 26+

I’m going low this year. Not a single game topped 23 in the last 3 majors. And only 1 game at TI has been 26+ in the past 3 TIs. So 23-25 I go.

Most deaths by a hero in a game

Prior results

2018: 18
2017: 20
2016: 17
Epicenter: 17, 17, 14
MDL Disneyland: 18, 15, 15
Dreamleague: 16, 13, 13

TI8 pick: 18-20

Alternative: 15-17

It was close to a tossup.

TI9 pick: 18-20

Ti Pick

Alternative: 15-17

It’s still close to a tossup. Just remember that TI has more games than a major so there’s more chances to get an outlier.

Most assists by a hero in a game

Prior Results

2018: 35 (EDIT: My source was wrong on this one (I had 45 here). It was 35 by FY.
2017: 36+
2016: 36
Epicenter: 39, 37, 35
MDL Disneyland: 34, 34, 31
Dreamleague: 37, 34, 31

TI8: 36+

EDIT: This one was actually wrong. It was 35 last year. Darn! But It’s always going to be right in that 34+ area and I’d do 36+ again if I had to.

TI9 pick: 36+

Oh wait I do get to do it again =). Only MDL Disneyland would have denied us this year and I’m willing to take that risk especially since TI will have nearly twice the games that a major has.

Most GPM by a hero in a game

Prior Results

2018: 1000+
2017: 1000+
2016: 1090
Epicenter: 1104, 1101, 1064
MDL Disneyland: 988, 957, 937
Dreamleague: 1094, 1021, 965

TI8 pick: 1000+

Alternative: 900-999

There was an Alch. I got it right.

TI9 pick: 1000+

Alternative: 900-999

I predict there will be an Alch

Closing Thoughts

If you got this far, congratulations! I hope you enjoyed the read. A few quick notes before you go:

Remember to lock in your predictions early. You can always change them later, but imagine waiting too long and not getting those precious battle points!
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Thanks for reading. Good luck in your predictions!

And last of all, go VP!!!!

Welcome topart 2 of our TI9 Meta Recap analytical series where we’ll focus on thedevelopments of Day 2, which brought a lot of awesome and surprising games. (Ifyou missed out part 1, you can check it out here: TI9 MetaDay 1.)

To sum-up, daytwo was the day of:

Comfort picks > meta picks: This showcases that the game is ina great state of balance and the meta doesn’t force teams to play heroes andstrategies just because they are imba.
Creativity: gimmicky, cheesy but unexpected combos seem tobe viable on the highest level of competitive Dota.

Pos. 1:Lifestealerwas one of the most picked and most successful heroes in pos. 1. His winrate of the day was 67%, which is very surprising because on day one heperformed very badly (29% win rate). Gyrocopteralso saw a lot of play, but unlike day one where he performed extremely well(78%WR), on day two he had the mediocre 42% WR. Alch is still the mostcontested hero and his win rate on day two improved. It’s interesting tomention here that Lifestealer could be valued highly as a counter to Alchbecause he is an active carry and has the required DPS to bring down Alch fromearly on. It’s also worth mentioning, however, that Lifestealer was successfulin some not-favorable matchups. E.g. Mineski were able to win a game with apos. 1 Naix vs a last-pick pos. 1 Terrorblade played by Liquid.Miracle-.

Pos. 2: The most interesting development on day 2 inthe mid lane is that Ember, who wasthe top mid lane hero on day one, did extremely badly on the second day. He wasplayed in 10 games and won only 2. Kunkkais more consistent but still doesn’t have amazing results as his win rate on daytwo fell to 44% (compared to 78% on day 1). The most contested and consistentmid laner on day 2 was Lesh with 11 picks, 15 bans, and not-amazing-but-respectable55% win rate.

Pos. 3:Enchantressis the 2^nd most contested hero in the tournament. Unlike on day one,where she had the very bad 29% win rate, on day two she redeemed herself bywinning 5 out of 6 games she was drafted. It’s worth mentioning that she wasplayed on the offlane two times against pos. 1 Sven and two times against pos.1 Gyro – two matchups she can do really well in. Sven and Gyro are popular pos.1 heroes right now, so it’s fairly likely that in the future teams will make sureto ban Ench when they intend to draft one of the two carries. It’s also veryinteresting that Centaur, Magnus, and Tide, the three team-fight offlaners we mentioned did very well on day1, underperformed seriously on day 2. It's also worth mentioning that all three have a bad matchup against Lifestealer, unlike Ench, which leads us to the conclusion that playing good hero matchups is more important than playing the popular heroes in the meta.

Pos. 4: Chen is the playmaking support that has the mostsuccess. This is not a big surprise and most teams are banning him, but hemanaged to win the three games he was played on day one and 4 out of the 5games he was played on day 2, showcasing that most teams on TI fear him for a goodreason. Continuing the tradition of heroes that did well on day oneunderperforming on day two, Elder Titan was still one of the most popularsupports, but his win rate fell from 62.5% to 33.3%. ET is also a hero that has a bad matchup against Lifestealer.

Pos. 5: Shadow Demon is still the most popular support, followed by AA, which isn’t surprising when heroeslike Alch and Slark are popular. Warlockdid much better on day two compared to day one (57% WR vs 29% WR), but the mostsuccessful pos. 5 hero was Treantwho won 4 out of his 5 games and might attract much more attention on himself inthe following days.

Finally,we cannot end this section without mentioning the sensation story of day 2:

Lifestealer might have been the most consistentperformer, but pos. 1 IO was by far the most interesting and creative thingthat happened! (More on that below).

Above: the standings after TI9 Group Stage: Day 2

In day oneI mentioned that overly-creative strats aren’t doing particularly well incomparison to stable drafts. On day 2, however, creativity is back with a vengeanceand a lot of teams showcased that you can definitely win by doing somethingunexpected.

The key,however, is how you implement it. The creativity that teams managed to usesuccessfully on day 2 consisted of unexpected use of heroes and hero interactions.The drafts themselves, however, were very well-rounded and had all majorcomponents of a stable strategy, making the game-plan much simpler and theexecution – easier, despite the curveball.

Toillustrate:

Thesensation of the day was OG’s successful use of pos. 1 Io (played by Ana) intwo consecutive games in their series vs NiP.

Game 1:

The strategywith Pos. 1 IO is as follows:

You playhim in a strong dual-lane the same way as you would if he was a support. E.g.in both games OG combined him with Treant or Elder Titan. Both heroes benefitfrom the Tether MS and regen to trade favorably with their lane opponents. Another good option would be Ogre, etc.
You getAghs and Maelstrom and focus on farming. You can always join fights with yourultimate: you play a bit like a Spectre would in the early-mid game.
Your first fight timing is Aghanim's + the lvl15 talent, and if the enemy team is weak you can break the base as 5.
You getHeart, which is a big power spike. You are able to provide a lot of sustain andtankiness not only for yourself but for your other core. If Io was a support,the enemy team would usually try to nuke him down quickly and deal with hiscarry later. With Io as a carry with Heart, however, bursting him down is notan option, which makes the combo of him + his partner much stronger. They areboth extremely fast and extremely tanky, and they deal good damage. They lack only control, which is something your other heroes need to provide.
You usethis timing to win the game. If you don’t manage to, however, you have anotherpower-spike on lvl25 – the additional attacks when you are Tethered increaseyour teams single-target DPS a great deal and help with pushing objectives(even split-pushing) a great deal. Notice that in both drafts the partner coreplayed by Topson is a hero that can attack objectives very fast – WR or Troll.

Notice, however, that OG doesn’t simply rely onthis surprising hero usage to win them the game. Their drafts are verywell-rounded. The other core is a hero with carry potential, and the pos. 3hero provides good team-fight initiation and control. The supports are stronglaners with good team-fight potential coming from one (ET, Treant) and savemechanics from the other (SD).

Anothervery creative and interesting interaction was used by EG to pull off a surprisevictory against VG. They used Morph with Aghanim’s + Dark Willow. When Morphuses his ultimate on the Willow, he receives the Aghanim’s effect of Shadow Realm– he is able to right-clock without leaving Shadow Realm, dealing a lot ofbonus magic damage and gaining huge range. This is absolutely amazing withMorph’s very fast attacks speed and high damage and is useful not only to nukedown heroes in fights but also to siege the enemy base from a safe distance.

Noticethat like OG, despite having a very creative hero interaction, EG have a solid andpretty standard draft. They have a traditional farming hard carry, an activefrontline semi-carry on pos. 2, a fight initiator with AoE control in theofflane, and two strong lane-supports with additional team-fight damage andcontrol.

Na’Vi pulled-offanother big upset in the tournament by beating VP 2-0. The way they did it isalso very interesting. They didn’t utilize some kind of crazy strategy to catchVP by surprise. Instead, they drafted some of their signature heroes (in fact,they drafted pretty much the same team two times in a row) and simply outplayedVP to claim the victory.

Game 1:

They playedso well individually and as a team, that it is very likely teams willrespect-ban e.g. Zayac’s Earth Spirit in the future.

The factthat Na’Vi managed to pull-off those two victories speaks very well for thestate of the game balance and the meta. Na’Vi were able to win convincinglyusing their “favorite” heroes without having to stick to the popular meta picksreligiously, which implies that the top meta picks aren’t imba and certainly aren’tthe only viable way to play the game.

(i.e.we > LoL : )

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