Betting Line Trends

As the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers prepare for Sunday’s Super Bowl LIV matchup, the sports betting world is starting to heat up and placing bets on the 2020 Super Bowl odds.

As betting trends move strongly in one direction, there may be line movement to balance out the money on each side of the bet. Betting trends can be swayed by many factors, including injuries, weather, suspensions, or any other new information that could potentially impact the result. The line opened with the Saints at -3.5 before quickly falling to -3, and it’s hovered back and forth between those two numbers all week long. Betting is fairly even on these two teams, and there’s not much reason to except a big line shift before kickoff.

I don’t recall a time where I was so undecided over who I thought would win the game. A snapshot into my head this week sounds something like this: “It’s the 49ers!” “No, the Chiefs!” “Defense wins championships, go 49ers!” “Have you seen Mahomes play? Chiefs all day!” “Andy Reid doesn’t know how to win the big one. Go 49ers.” One of my personalities will eventually win this battle.

Many I’ve spoken with seem to be having the same internal battles around the 2020 Super Bowl odds. So, to no surprise in a game seemingly causing most to go back-and-forth on picking an outright winner, we’re seeing some betting trends representing a similar point of view. In fact, a solid percentage of sports bettors are taking a cash-out betting approach, showing the lack of certainty on betting either side.

Regardless, the volume of bets on the 2020 Super Bowl across the United States will be huge.

“For this being the first Super Bowl where sports betting is legal in the US, it’s incredibly exciting to see both the volume of bets BetMGM is receiving as well as the dollar amount,” Elisa Richardson, spokeswoman for BetMGM shared with SportsbookWire. “It speaks directly to how big the opportunity for sports betting in the US really is.”

Super Bowl LIV Betting Trends

Per Richardson, when it comes to Super Bowl 2020 Against the Spread odds, sports bettors at BetMGM Sportsbook are:

betting 72% of cash bets on the Chiefs spreadbetting 68% of ticket wagers on the Chiefs spread

When it comes to the Over/Under, those betting at BetMGM are:

betting 70% ticket wagers on the Over (54.5)using only 63% of cash bets on Over wagers

Now, when you take the 2020 Super Bowl Moneyline into the equation, you see two very different things playing out per wagers at BetMGM:

58% of Moneyline tickets are being bet on the 49ers57% of cash wagers are on the Moneyline for the Chiefs

All data via BetMGM as of Tuesday afternoon ET.

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Big bets on 2020 Super Bowl

How about those big-dollar wagers you always start hearing about this time of the year? If you’re like me, you love seeing where the heavy hitters are laying their bets. According to BetMGM, they’re already taking some heavy action on the 2020 Super Bowl, including:

$14,000

Betting Line Trends

wager on 49ers ML (+115) on 1/29$100,000 wager on 49ers ML (+110) on 1/29$100,000 wager on 49ers ML (+105) on 1/30$150,000 wager on the Chiefs ML (-125)$200,000 wager on the Chiefs ATS at -1$550,000 wager on the Chiefs ATS at -1 to win $500,000 (bet at The Bellagio in Las Vegas) on 1/28$1,000,000 wager on 49ers ML (+120) on 1/29 by famed MLB bettor Mattress Mack

My wife would kill me if I tried any of those bets at home (that, and I’d end up losing the aforementioned home), but that sure would be an intense sweat during the fourth quarter.

Also see:

Super Bowl LIV Betting GuideChiefs-49ers Odds: Kansas City a slight favorite over San Francisco2020 Super Bowl viewing guide: What time does the Super Bowl start?

2020 Super Bowl Odds

As of Thursday at 5 p.m. ET, the Chiefs continue as 1.5-point (-106) favorites over the 49ers (-112) on the spread. Will additional big bets from sharps push the odds before Sunday?

The Moneyline still has the 49ers at plus-money, sitting at +105 while the Chiefs are anything but chalky at -121 odds.

The Over/Under remains at 54.5, with -110 tax on both sides of the number.

Want some action on the last football game of the season? Visit BetMGM and place your bets on the big game now.

Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

UPDATED 1/30/2020 with additional large bets
UPDATED 1/29/2020 with direct quotes from BetMGM.

The NFL betting season is perhaps the most exciting time of the year for sports bettors. However, it can turn into a bit of a grind after the newness of the season wears off.

Betting Line Trends

Even experienced handicappers can experience a slump here and there, while new bettors can have trouble navigating their way the first time they hit a downturn.

When this occurs, it can often be as simple as being patient when you have a properly designed sports handicapping system. The ball will eventually bounce in your direction. However, there are times when tweaks are needed to fine-tune even the best approaches to sports betting.

If you find yourself in a situation such as this, it can be helpful to remember some nuggets of handicappingwisdom that has stood the test of time.

One is that the trend is your friend. So, what does that mean for you and how can you use it to your betting advantage? Let’s take a closer look at NFL betting trends and find out.

What are NFL betting trends?

In sports betting, trends can refer to which way the money is flowing on a particular game or event, also known as the “bettingtrend.”

Also, there are situationaltrends that revolve around a specific outcome or range of circumstances.

This is an important distinction to make. While the trend may be telling you that the majority of the action is heading in a particular direction, that doesn’t mean it’s flowing the right way.

The same applies to situational trends. Because something has happened seven of the 10 times a pair of teams have hooked up on the field, it doesn’t mean it’ll be a sure thing this time.

Said another way, trends can be an instrumental part of the handicappingpuzzle, but they should by no means be the rule. That said, there are times when the trend is overwhelming, and the information needs to be taken seriously.

Last year’s Super Bowl betting lines serve as a perfect example.

When the betting lines were initially released, the Los Angeles Rams were installed as 1-point favorites over the New England Patriots. After the market had its say, the line shifted to the point that the Patriots were 2.5-point favorites at kickoff.

New England would go on to win the game by a score of 13-3. That’s another feather in the cap for trend bettors, but it shouldn’t be a sign that following the money is a surefire way to success.

In fact, there are numerous instances in which the majority of action on a particular game has come in on the losing side.

The same note of caution applies to situational trends. Team A may have a historical advantage over Team B, but each game is its own event and should be treated as such.

Anything can happen once the ball is kicked off, NFL power rankings might be thrown out the window and trends can reverse in the opposite direction without much notice.

NFL Betting trends examples

A betting trend can be as simple as how a team has fared for the season to date, or over a recent stretch of games. As an example, the New England Patriots closed out the 2019 season with a record of 12-4.

The overall trend for the team was winning more often than not, to the tune of a .750 winning percentage. If you simply bet on the Patriots to win each game last year, you’d have cashed 12 winning tickets and lost out on four others.

For recent trends, it can go to both extremes. The Baltimore Ravens closed out the year on a 12-game winning streak, while the Kansas City Chiefs won their final six games in a row. On the opposite end, the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers lost their last nine and eight games respectively.

Hindsight makes all of these trends easy to spot, but recognizing them as they happen isn’t always so simple. It’s tough to predict how long a streak may last, and the same holds true on trying to figure out when a squad will snap a skid.

For a helpful clue, we can dig even deeper on team records and what’s going on of late. To do so, we can simply drill down into how they’ve performed in certain circumstances. Here are the situational records for the teams in the NFC North from the 2019 campaign.

Team	Record	Home	Away	Division	Conference
Green Bay Packers	13-3	7-1	6-2	6-0	10-2
Minnesota Vikings	10-6	6-2	4-4	2-4	7-5
Chicago Bears	8-8	4-4	4-4	4-2	7-5
Detroit Lions	3-12-1	2-6	1-6-1	0-6	2-9-1

The Packers won the division last season, and it’s not too tough to see why. They performed well on each of the situational metrics and were a reliable moneyline bet as a result. The Minnesota Vikings snagged a Wild Card berth in spite of a divisional record that left lots to be desired, the Chicago Bears were middle of the pack across the board, while the Lions were the also-rans of the division.

NFL betting trends by bet type

You can also take it a step further by examining how the team has performed by bet type for the year. We’ll stick with the same division to see how the teams fared in 2019.

Team	Moneyline	Against the Spread	Totals
Green Bay Packers	13-3	10-6	6-10
Minnesota Vikings	10-6	9-7	9-7
Chicago Bears	8-8	4-12	6-10
Detroit Lions	3-12-1	6-10	10-6

The Packers and Vikings were pretty reliable ATS bets in addition to on the moneyline. Spread bettors on the Bears and Lions didn’t exactly have great seasons. Meanwhile, the team with the poorest overall record was the most reliable in terms of betting on the Over.

Betting Line Trends 2020

You can also go even further by seeing how the team has performed on certain splits by bet type, such as ATS records home and away, totals for divisional games, and so on. Also, you can check out the records on all splits for the team in the role of favorite or underdog.

All of these things can be easily monitored throughout the course of the season. There are a number of exceptional resources to be found on the internet which track all of the above and then some, so be sure to use them to your advantage.

NFL Betting trends to pay attention to

So how do you know when a trend is one to make note of or one to be dismissed as little more than noise? Unfortunately, there’s not a one size fits all answer.

When we approach an individual NFL game from a handicapping perspective, it should be treated as its own unique event in which anything can happen. We need to approach trends in a similar fashion. They each need to be treated on their own and be closely monitored as they develop.

When they get to the point that they are so overwhelming that there’s clearly something there, it’s time to pounce. As a quick example, a team that has won its first three home divisional games could be in line to turn the trick again when the fourth one rolls around.

As part of your weekly handicapping process, make note of team marks in certain situations, as well as by bet type. If you get in the habit of doing this, trends that bear watching will begin to jump out at you.

From a broader perspective, think of it in the same way that an NFL season develops. By the midway point, we have some really good clues on whether teams fall into the camp of the have or have not for the season.

As November winds down, it becomes even more readily apparent. By this point, we also have plenty of recent data to lean on. The season-long trends emerge as time moves along, so take the time to stay on top of what’s what.

NFL betting trends to ignore

Definable trends can be valuable pieces of information to use while handicapping games. However, it’s essential to know the distinction and not make the mistake of going too far down the rabbit hole looking at trends that aren’t there.

Quite simply, trends take time to materialize.

For instance, teams in the same division play each other twice each season. Let’s say Team B dominated Team A both times they faced off the prior year. Would it mean Team B is an automaticbet when facing Team A from here on out?

Of course not.

Team A has had an entire offseason to adapt and evolve, not to mention stew over the fact that their division rival made them look silly twice the previous season. Each time a game gets underway, it’s a whole new event. You should treat it as such.

In addition, some teams don’t face off often. For inter-conference games specifically, be careful with how much weight you put on historical matchups between the two squads.

While it may be interesting to know one team holds a 4-1 advantage over the other for the previous five meetings, it doesn’t mean much when they are only playing each other every few years.

We also need to be careful about placing too much emphasis on which way the money is flowing. After all, if the public’s NFL bets were always spot on, then sportsbooks would take a beating week after week. That doesn’t happen too much, so keep it in mind when you consider following the money.

Consider it in the context of the week’s handicapping, but don’t let publicsentiment be the overwhelming factor in your decision-making.

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How to use NFL betting trends

Throughout the season, trends will prove to be quite helpful. If a team is showing dominance at home, ATS, or as a favorite or an underdog, it’s definitely a situation worth monitoring.

The same applies to trends involving the amount of money people are wagering. If a dominant team is facing off with a weaker foe with a reasonable line, a lot of the money can fall on the side of the better team.

This case is when it can be a good idea to follow the money. However, it’s also important to not consider these games as being automatic.

Don’t be afraid to dive in and try to find information that others may be missing. After all, spotting the upsets that others aren’t expecting can be quite lucrative.

In all cases, be sure the trend is not only valid but that it means something. Trends will take time to develop. Don’t feel the need to jump the gun on a situation that has yet to prove itself.

If a team has won two division games in a row, they may be on the winningtrack.

However, it doesn’t mean they’re a sure winner in division games from here on out. If a team is 4-1 after five division games, that’s a trend worth paying attention to as they get ready for their sixth game versus a familiar rival.

For the public sentiment, be sure to understand why the money is flowing the way it is.

Is there a piece of irrefutable evidence that points to one team being stronger than the other? Has there been a majorinjury — quarterback, offensive line, a key piece on defense — which could legitimately alter the outcome of the game?

Betting Line Trends Against

Once you know for a fact why the money is going where it is, it will then be time to decide if you agree or disagree. If it’s a dominant team facing a weaker squad with a reasonable line, there’s a good chance you’ll want to take notice.

Betting Line Trends High School

When there’s a significant injury at play and the money is moving toward the other team, the public sentiment can surely be on to something.

Betting Line Trends Uk

Trends are a valuable part of any handicapping strategy, but keep in mind the importance of spotting the real ones versus those which amount to little more than noise.